From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro
Against the backdrop of the immense confusion following the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.
A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move
The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.
The choice to militarily strike another state and seize its president – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.
Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis
Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.
The Superpower as Rogue State
A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a lawless actor.
He believes that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.
An Attack Without Legal Justification
George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.
Put aside the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
It is widely rejected the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.
World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN
The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.
Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.
Barely 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.
